Canberra Skeptics
Argos 9: March 2004
N.B. The next
function: Saturday 13th March
Social evening at the Wig and Pen, Civic from 7.45pm
Diary dates
Easter 9-12 April
Tues 13th April, 7.30pm. Social evening at the Wig and Pen, Civic.
Thur 13th May, 7.30pm. Alan Wade : "Bottled water --’ a big con?"
Provisionally RSL, Civic.
Sun 13th June, 7.00pm. Gluhwein and Pizzas. Venue to be arranged.
Fri 18th June, 7.30pm. Dr Jill Gordon: "Psychotherapy" Provisionally
RSL, Civic.
Tues 13th July, 7.30pm. Lynne Kelly: "Science and the paranormal −
a writer's perspective".
Fri 13th Aug, 7.30pm. Social evening at the Wig and Pen, Civic.
Sat 21st Aug, 1.00pm. Forum on Global Warming. CSIRO Discovery Centre
Sat 21st Aug, 7.00pm. Dinner and Debate "This house believes Global
Warming is a Good Thing"
Sun 22nd Aug, 10.30am. Ride for the Planet. Hall to Parliament House.
International Skeptics conference will be held in Italy, at Padua (which
is 30 mins drive from Venice) from October 8-10, 2004.
Recent events
The Social Gathering at the Yacht Club in Yarralumla on Tuesday 13th January
was enjoyed by several members who discovered a variety of novel ways of
turning wine into water. Discussion included the metabolic breakdown
of ethanol, theories on the biochemical basis for general anaesthesia, the
mars probes, problems in tertiary education, global warming etc. As it was
happy hour at the Club, the discussions, when you could actually hear them,
became animated at times.
The Friday 13th February talk by Dr Ron Wells entitled "War, sex and little
boys" in Room 4 at the Griffin Centre, Civic, was widely advertised by email
and I was half expecting a visit from our local constabulary to check whether
Canberra Skeptics are a paedophile ring. The Queensland Police unit
doing this sort of investigation is dubbed "Taskforce Argos" so it is perhaps
fortunate that a Google search on canberra skeptics argos "canberra skeptics"
failed to generate a single hit. The evening with Ron was a highly
entertaining and informative brainstorming session on factors affecting the
gender ratio of the newborn. Those who missed it and are interested
in the topic might like to borrow or buy Ron's books on the subject -- ’
The sexual odds: can you choose the sex of your baby? (ISBN: 9831365410.
Birchgrove, NSW : Sally Milner Publishing, 1990) and Human Sex Determination:
an Historical Review and Synthesis (ISBN: 0731693744 Riverlea Publishing
1990). Both are out of print (I think) but Ron produced a second edition
of the first named in 2002, which he tells me is available in electronic
form from him (ronwells@pucg.org.au). Secondhand copies are advertised
on the Web -- ’ one site in India has it in its erotica section!
Our stall at the ANU Market Day (February 17th) operated again this year,
for part of the day. There was the usual interest in the free energy
generator, and the regular complaint that Skeptics don't do enough about
taking on the mainstream religions. Perhaps if we had as big a slush fund
as they do we would do that more often. Prof Ian Plimer's $300,000+
experience shows what can happen when you do (see http://www.skeptics.com.au/features/news/ip-trialintro.htm)
Those who missed Ockham's razor (Radio National: Sunday 8.45am, Mondays 2.15pm)
on 22nd/23rd February missed skeptic Colin Keay. A transcript of his talk
-- ’ Should we have more nuclear power stations?’ -- can be found on http://www.abc.net.au/rn/science/ockham/stories/s1048595.htm.
Some 20 individuals made their way to the Tidbinbilla (Canberra Deep Space)
Tracking Station on Saturday 6th March for an update from Glen Nagle on the
space exploration programme. After an excellent value meal at the Moonrock
Cafe, Glen gave us a run down on the latest reports from Mars, what the Saturn
probe is hoping to find and various other projects are underway or planned.
He pointed out that the NASA tracking station at Tidbinbilla is the biggest
export earner for the ACT. He also told us the signals received here
are transmitted to USA to be decoded and thus their good/badnews content
has to be monitored by the Tidbinbilla Glee Meter. Readers wishing
to follow the Mars Rover on its exploration can do so at http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov/home/
News
Welcome to new member
A warm welcome to new member: Melinda Small. Melinda is a statistician
with the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
From the Committee
At its last meeting the Committee decided to start preparing for the environment
weekend in August, including a forum, debate and bike ride. The committee
is seeking alternative venues for speakers. If anyone has any good
ideas, please advise the President.
Report on James Randi's The Amaz!ng Meeting
2 (Las Vegas, 15 to 18 January)
[Peter Barrett went and this is his unedited report].
As part of a two week trip to the USA, I took part in a major skeptical event
organised by James Randi's Education Foundation, or JREF. The event
was known as The Amaz!ng Meeting 2 (TAM 2), and it was held in Las Vegas
from Thursday 15 January to Sunday 18 January 2004.
James 'The Amazing' Randi is one of the leading figures in the Skeptical
world. A highly successful magician, he's made it his life's work to unmask
fakes and scam artists, assisted by the JREF. The JREF supports Randi's web-site
(www.randi.org), and his various activities through
the year. The web-site is well worth a visit, if only for his weekly commentary
which covers all sorts of topics. It also includes a lively web forum whose
members have developed a strong sense of community, as well as attracting
a few people with alternate views.
It was the support of people such as these which led to the first Amaz!ng
Meeting last year. TAM 1 was such a success that TAM 2 was widely supported.
Randi is a short, balding man, 75 years young, with a bushy, snow-white beard
and a fierce visage (when he wants to employ it). He's loyal to his friends
and fellow skeptics, and very charming in person. But he suffers no fools,
and is hell on those who try to mislead him, others or themselves; he reserves
particular scorn for those with Ph.D. after their names, as people believing
themselves incapable of being mistaken.
TAM 2 attracted an audience of about 400 people. Most were from the USA,
but there were others from Canada, Europe and Latin America, and five from
Australia. About a quarter of the people attending were members of the JREF
forum. The program featured over 20 speakers, two panel discussions, and
a range of official and unofficial activities.
Thursday 15 January
I arrived in Las Vegas just after 1pm, with TAM 2 already under way. Randi
and JREF's Andrew Harter were running a workshop, though the official opening
wasn't until 5pm.
After the official opening by Randi, the first speaker was Jamy Ian Swiss,
described in the program as a quick-of-hand. His talk mainly consisted of
magic skills, but as we admired his tricks he took the time to briefly discuss
the difference between magic and religion. The main comment he made after
one trick was, "If you thought this was real, you wouldn't be an audience,
you'd be a congregation."
The second and last speaker for the day was Ian Rowland, who was the guest
of honour at the Australian Skeptics Conference in Canberra last August.
He gave essentially the same performance that he did on that occasion, but
no less impressive the second time around. In fact, seeing his skills a second
time gave me a couple of clues as to what was happening. Still, the thing
which occurred to me at the time was the sheer pleasure and wonder I got
from watching these talents in use, and the challenge of trying to work out
where and how I was being fooled.
The last activity of the day, which I wasn't able to participate in, was
the Skepchicks Pyjama Party. Starting out as a bit of a laugh, it became
something of a symbol of the success the JREF has had both in attracting
women to skeptical ranks, and a celebration of the JREF's on-line community.
Friday 16 January
Dr Michael Shermer was the first speaker this morning, discussing his new
book, "The Science of Good and Evil", about the origins of morality. Shermer's
position is that morality evolved by natural selection. He listed two moral
principles, reciprocity, and the Golden Rule (do unto others), which are
almost universally embraced. He covered a range of topics in his talk: why
we should be moral; the rise of religion; the existence of good and evil;
and his concept of provisional morality as an alternative to either absolute
or relative morality.
Dr Eugenie Scott of the National Center for Science Education spoke next,
about the ongoing battle with creationists and "Intelligent Design" proponents
in the USA, and the role of the NCSE in helping local groups combat efforts
to emasculate the science curriculum. (Dr Scott gave talks in Australia a
few years ago on the same topic.) She said the NCSE (www.ncseweb.org) provides advice for individuals
and groups, and conducts research into creationist positions and articles.
The last speaker before lunch was Hervey Peoples, author of the book "The
Human Question". Her talk largely covered the beliefs held by Americans about
evolution, based on a large number of interviews. It may seem depressing
that only 10% of Americans believe only evolution has shaped humanity's past,
while 44% are creationists, with about 40% holding mixed or moderate views.
But on the bright side, she emphasised that the "mixed/moderate" position
embraced a large range of views, and that even the term "creationist" was
a relatively broad term.
After lunch, Australia's own Ratbag, Peter Bowditch, described the problems
caused by the alternate medicine industry in Australia, and in particular
by the Complementary Healthcare Council of Australia. He also described his
journey to TAM 2, which included detours to various quack clinics in southern
California and northern Mexico, and his failure to meet the various people
who have threatened him over the Internet.
Banachek the mentalist returned us to the world of magic, with some impressive
tricks. He then described how he took part in a series of tests of mental
powers undertaken by Peter Phillips in 1980-81. Phillips was a scientist,
but something of a true believer in mental powers, and unaware that he was
constantly being fooled by the young magician. He was all the more naive
to ignore advice given by Randi on how he might be tricked. Worst of all,
Phillips never realised the significance of the fact that each letter Randi
wrote was specific to the test Phillips had just conducted, even though Randi
wasn't part of Phillips's test team: Banachek contacted Randi after each
test. He concluded his talk by warning of the false dichotomy - the belief
that once you know one explanation for a phenomenon you know them all.
Then came one of the highlights of TAM 2: Penn and Teller. These two spectacular
performers thrilled us with some of their tricks, most of them different
from what they were to perform later. Throughout, the larger-than-life Penn
kept up an aggressive patter, while Teller remained silent. The first trick
was an old favourite - restoring to wholeness a length of cloth which appeared
to have been cut in two. Other tricks included Teller eating pins, and Penn
eating fire. Later on, they both spoke, with Teller describing magic as a
celebration of the art of lying. Penn built on that, saying that lying is
the one evil that can be celebrated when surrounded by the proscenium arch.
What's wrong is when it leaks into the real world.
Following a short break, Randi, Penn, Teller, Shermer, Peoples, Scott, Dr
Bob Park, Dr Steve Barrett and Dr Phil Plait gathered for a panel discussion
of Bringing skepticism to the masses, moderated by the JREF's Hal Bidlack.
Some comments:
- What is the skeptical movement doing to bring its message to minorities?
Skepticism appears to be only a white male idea.
- Is there a danger of harming skepticism with bad phonecalls to radio
shows? Not really - just mention the JREF million dollars and the web-sites.
- Magicians can have a major influence on the public, perhaps more than
skeptics and humanists.
- Critical thinking is applicable everywhere - you can't exclude areas
of personal preference.
- Ridicule is a weapon which can be used in discussions. Otherwise,
speak quietly and slowly, and let the other person rave. Then, select a couple
of points and pick them apart.
The end of the panel marked the end of formal proceedings for the day. After
dinner (some of us ate at an Outback Steakhouse) we caught a shuttle bus
to the Rio casino, to catch the Penn and Teller show. The show is brilliant,
and I can highly recommend it to anyone who happens to be in Las Vegas. I’m
so pleased that they play to large audiences every night, year after year,
because the show is much more than just magic: Penn's rapid-fire spiel also
contained many references to critical thinking, science and atheism.
The show was something of a blur: Penn juggled flaming torches (and managed
to yell, "Fire!" in a crowded theatre as he extinguished a deliberately dropped
torch), then broken bottles, his description of the trick's difficulty operating
at two levels; Teller conjured coins from water, then turned them into goldfish;
Penn escaped from a noose; Teller's rabbit had an unfortunate meeting with
a garden mulcher; Penn and a female assistant indulged in fire eating to
piano accompaniment; Teller made silk hankies dance while he played the saxophone;
Penn and Teller engaged in a knife throwing trick at the expense of a selected
audience member; and Penn and Teller discussed politics as they appeared
to burn an American flag.
They concluded their show with the famous two bullet trick: while staying
on separate sides of the stage, they shot marked bullets at each other, apparently
catching them in their teeth. Selected members of the audience, who'd marked
the bullets and the cartridges confirmed that the cartridges had remained
in the pistols, while the bullets had crossed the stage, clearly passing
through glass panels.
Saturday 17 January
The first speaker today was Dr Bob Park, who discussed a US Supreme Court
decision of 1993 that courts were to determine scientific expertise, rather
than juries. Parks described seven warning signs of voodoo science, written
as advice for judges. 1) The discovery is pitched to the media rather than
other scientists. 2) A Powerful Establishment is said to be suppressing the
discovery. 3) An effect is always at the limit of detection. 4) Evidence
for a discovery is anecdotal. 5) A belief is said to be credible because
it's endured for centuries. 6) An important discovery is made in isolation.
7) New laws of nature must be proposed to explain an observation.
On the way, Feisty Bob told a couple of stories, starting with the classic,
"There's no claim so preposterous that a Ph.D. can't be found to vouch for
it." He also mentioned the Center for Alternative Medicine, created by the
US Congress. Thanks to a politically canny director, it now receives hundreds
of millions of dollars in government funding, and it's been conducting randomised
double blind trials of a number of alternate medicines. So far, all of the
results coming in have proven negative.
The next speaker was Dr Steve Barrett of Quackwatch, who warned that consumers
are vulnerable to the claims of alternate medicine quacks because they're
not suspicious enough, and don't have the background to judge the accuracy
of the information they're given. Some are antagonistic to science, distrustful
of it, or even paranoid. There are also consumers who are terrified or desperate.
Suppliers of these alternative medicines also fall into a number of categories.
Some are moral believers. Others are amoral business people, in that they
don't care whether their products are useful, as long as they sell them.
Finally, there are the immoral crooks, who know they're selling rubbish.
The last speaker before lunch was the highly amusing Dr Phil Plait, the Bad
Astronomer (Barry Williams reviewed his book "Bad Astronomy" in the Winter
2002 edition of "The Skeptic"). The BA covered two issues which caused something
of a stir during 2003, the Harmonic Convergence and NASA's decision to crash
the Galileo spacecraft into Jupiter.
The Harmonic Convergence was an event which actually occurred (well, sort
of) last year. Six celestial objects happened to be placed at roughly 60
degree intervals around the Earth, an event of some importance in New Age
circles. However, the BA found three major problems: 1) the six objects were
at vastly different distances from the Earth; 2) they were scattered at varying
angles above and below the Ecliptic, and 3) they varied vastly in size (in
fact, one of them was the Sun, while another was a 200 km diameter comet
remnant).
You may remember that Galileo was deliberately crashed into Jupiter last
year to prevent it from inadvertently contaminating Jupiter's moons. However,
there were some in the woo-woo community who believed that NASA’s
real plan was to use Galileo's Radio-Thermal Generators (its power source)
to ignite the hydrogen in Jupiter's atmosphere and turn it into a new star.
The BA pointed out no less than six factors which each made this impossible.
You may also be interested to know that the Australian Skeptics have formally
invited the BA to be the guest of honour at this November's conference in
Sydney, and he's keen to attend.
The first speaker after lunch was the delightful Julia Sweeney, late of the
comedy TV show, "Saturday Night Live". Sweeney's talk was a pared-down version
of her new monologue, "Letting Go of God", a tale both hilarious and melancholy
of her journey from Catholicism to atheism, and the stopping off points between.
She emphasised the importance of accepting what is true, whether you like
it or not, and she described how removing God from your world view changes
your outlook on events: things become your responsibility - you can't leave
it to God.
The next "talk" turned out to be a two man act. Dean Cameron, a Hollywood
actor, and his friend Victor Isaac, performed "Dino and Victor's Nigerian
Spam Scam Scam". Dino and Victor read a month's worth of emails exchanged
between Cameron and various Nigerians who have been attempting to scam money
from him. Cameron played himself, while Isaac played the parts of the Nigerians.
They had the audience in stitches as Cameron made hilarious cultural references
which they completely missed, deliberately misunderstood some statements
they made, introduced obscure codes and irrelevant side issues, and flirted
outrageously with one of the Nigerians.
The last speaker of the day was Lance Burton, a magician, who, like Penn
and Teller, has his own permanent show in Las Vegas. Burton's act was short.
He started with a demonstration of faux magic, turning it into real magic.
He then demonstrated the skill of escaping from a straightjacket, a homage
to Harry Houdini.
Following the afternoon break was the second panel discussion, featuring
Randi, Sweeney, Penn, Swiss, Rowland, Dino, and Harter. Again moderated by
Hal Bidlack, the topic was Skepticism and the Entertainment Industry. Not
surprisingly, many questions were directed at Julia Sweeney.
a. What do you tell kids about
atheism and death? Explain it to them straight.
b. Should there be a movie
to exalt science and critical thinking? No, it doesn't work that way. Instead,
celebrate the great movies, like "Apollo 13" and "South Park".
c. What can we do to help
deal with the flakes and frauds on talk shows? Don't watch it. Watch the
good stuff and write to the stations to thank them when they screen it.
d. What did the panellists
think of the term "Bright"? Penn and Randi both like it.
e. Rowland described some
unhappiness within the magical industry about his book on cold reading, believing
he was revealing trade secrets.
f. What harm do people like
John Edward do? They're lying, cheating scum. You might have liked it at
the time, but what of integrity? Nor is he a grief counsellor, as his method
is to make people hold on to the pain of bereavement, rather than to move
on. The term "epistemological hedonism" was used: if it feels good, do it.
Doesn't this apply to John Edward? Penn's response was, "It also applies
to heroin."
g. What of Penn and Teller's
TV series "Bullshit"? It'll be out on DVD in March. (The show was reviewed
by Richard Saunders in the Autumn 2003 edition of "The Skeptic".)
h. Will they be covering Scientology?
Penn said that even he and Teller weren't powerful enough to take on the
scientologists, though he suspected they were a lot less influential than
people gave them credit for.
Another of the informal activities followed - the international chocolate
challenge. I flew the Australian flag by bringing along some Tim Tams, considering
their name appropriate for TAM 2!
Sunday 18 January
The day started with the presentation of papers, introduced by JREF's Dr
Jeff Corey. The papers were brief talks prepared by JREF forum members on
topics of personal interest.
Lt Col Matt Morgan presented a talk on the misuse of the Second Law of Thermodynamics
by creationists to "prove" that evolution is impossible. They claim that
increased order contradicts the 2LOT, but ignore the fact that the law applies
only to closed systems. Thanks to the Sun, the Earth is anything but a closed
system.
Dr Ray Hall discussed how science works. He started with Carl Sagan's Baloney
Detection Kit, Occam's Razor, Verification and Falsification. The proponent
of a claim must be able to answer the question: "What evidence could I show
you that could change your mind?" Finally, Dr Hall compared a case
law description of science (that which is testable, falsifiable, provisional,
guided by natural law, and which is explained by reference to these laws)
with the membership statements of creationist groups (which are articles
of faith).
The last paper was presented by Dr Dave Ewalt, about skeptics and the media.
When writing letters to the Editor, there are things to keep in mind to improve
the chances of being published: be polite; be constructive (provide links
to useful sites); suggest good sources of information; keep it short; get
others to write letters as well (but don't use a boilerplate); write to the
editor and the reporter (so the boss knows they've been caught out); and
don't always be negative (let the media know when they get it right).
The last speaker of the conference was Dr Ray Beiersdorfer, a geologist and
expert on lunar rocks, who spoke about that staple of New Age nonsense, the
crystal. He defined crystals as substances in which the atoms are arranged
in a regular, repeating, orderly pattern, naturally occurring, inorganic,
solid, and with characteristic physical properties. Drawing from his research
on the Internet, Dr Beiersdorfer catalogued the healing claims for crystals,
the basis for the claims and people's beliefs. He then described some of
the unsuccessful tests of the claims of crystal powers he had conducted.
The last part of TAM 2 was a couple of short films. The first was of the
first card trick performed in space. Randi (on Earth) and NASA astronaut
Ed Lu (on the International Space Station) jointly performed the trick, with
the assistance of NASA and local media. Lu, a cheerful man with a impish
grin, played with a deck of cards as it floated in front of him, listening
to Randi's instructions, and clearly relished the event.
The second film was a series of short clips of James van Praagh, one of those
people who's made his name from "talking to the dead". The film showed how
he constantly recycles his terms from show to show. Each segment was preceded
by words: breathing; toys; jewellery; these seemed to be the only things
the dead mentioned to van Praagh, and the victims did their best to fit their
circumstances to his statements, while he quickly revised his comments to
fit their replies.
After a short break, those of us remaining gathered for the formal closing
of TAM 2. Randi again spoke. He reminded us that discussion and evidence
are different things, and reiterated that, "If you make the claim, supply
the evidence."
Sunday afternoon
One of the semi-official events accompanying TAM 2 was a tour of Red Rock
Canyon, organised by Dr Beiersdorfer. Seven vehicles, filled with about 25
people, headed out to the scrubby desert west of Las Vegas, below the Spring
Mountains.
As we approached the mountains, the banding of various sandstone strata becomes
colourfully obvious. We briefly stopped at the Visitors Center, where we
got a view of the spectacular Calico Hills, a large outcrop of sandstone,
coloured pink, red and cream. The next stop was adjacent to the Calico Hills,
giving us the chance to examine the cross-bedded fossilised sand dunes from
the Triassic Period. After a brief stop at the highest point in the area
(from which we could see Las Vegas) we headed into Willow Spring Canyon,
where we found Native American rock paintings and rock carvings dating back
several centuries.
So what did I learn?
TAM 2 was a wonderful experience, and so much more than just listening to
the speakers. A large part of the experience was interacting with the people
from around the world who shared the skeptical worldview, people who enjoyed
each other's company, people with a wide range of careers and talents, thoughtful
people who were always willing to learn something new.
Randi gives no signs of slowing down, and his status within the magic and
skeptical communities was vital in allowing him to assemble such a wonderful
list of speakers. His staff showed the importance of people working behind
the scenes and out in front to make things work. The conference was quite
expensive, with registration costing about US$300, and accommodation a fair
bit more on top of that. We do a good job to keep our own registration fees
well below that.
However, the speakers were all of a high standard, from the fields of science,
magic and the entertainment industry. I think we could do well to include
some speakers from the third category at future Skeptic conferences, and
the issue has been informally discussed.
TAM 2 was strongly atheist, and a number of panel questions related to this.
Both Randi and Penn are aggressively atheist, and a number of their comments
left some people uncomfortable. But there were others there I spoke to who
greatly appreciated Randi and Penn vocalising their own thoughts.
The conference generally ran smoothly, although there were a few hiccups
caused by the venue, and a few speakers ran over time. The two panel discussions
were a great success, allowing attendees to pitch questions directly to the
speakers (there had been no time for questions of individual speakers). But
in general, the conference was organised on similar lines to Skeptic conferences
here in Australia.
A few other people who attended TAM 2 have written up their comments (and
attached photos). If you'd like to read them, visit www.randi.org, go to
the JREF forum and select the topic "The Amaz!ng Meet!ng and other Skeptical
Events".
In summary, it was so good I'd love to be able to go to future TAMs.
Peter Barrett
Feb 2004
Ramblings from the President
A member suggested we have a talk on "Nanobes". As a microbiologist
I am of the view there would be nano value in this -- as will be revealed
in my Ramblings in the next Argos.
Pete Griffith
March 2004