Canberra Skeptics Argos 9: March 2004


N.B. The next function: Saturday 13th March

Social evening at the Wig and Pen, Civic from 7.45pm

Diary dates

Easter 9-12 April

Tues 13th April, 7.30pm.  Social evening at the Wig and Pen, Civic.

Thur 13th May, 7.30pm. Alan Wade : "Bottled water --’ a   big con?" Provisionally RSL, Civic.

Sun 13th June, 7.00pm.  Gluhwein and Pizzas. Venue to be arranged.

Fri 18th June, 7.30pm.  Dr Jill Gordon: "Psychotherapy" Provisionally RSL, Civic.

Tues 13th July, 7.30pm.  Lynne Kelly: "Science and the paranormal − a writer's perspective".

Fri 13th Aug, 7.30pm.  Social evening at the Wig and Pen, Civic.

Sat 21st Aug, 1.00pm.  Forum on Global Warming. CSIRO Discovery Centre

Sat 21st Aug, 7.00pm.  Dinner and Debate "This house believes Global Warming is a Good Thing"

Sun 22nd Aug, 10.30am.  Ride for the Planet. Hall to Parliament House.

International Skeptics conference will be held in Italy, at Padua (which is 30 mins drive from Venice) from October 8-10, 2004.

Recent events

The Social Gathering at the Yacht Club in Yarralumla on Tuesday 13th January was enjoyed by several members who discovered a variety of novel ways of turning wine into water.  Discussion included the metabolic breakdown of ethanol, theories on the biochemical basis for general anaesthesia, the mars probes, problems in tertiary education, global warming etc. As it was happy hour at the Club, the discussions, when you could actually hear them, became animated at times.


The Friday 13th February talk by Dr Ron Wells entitled "War, sex and little boys" in Room 4 at the Griffin Centre, Civic, was widely advertised by email and I was half expecting a visit from our local constabulary to check whether Canberra Skeptics are a paedophile ring.  The Queensland Police unit doing this sort of investigation is dubbed "Taskforce Argos" so it is perhaps fortunate that a Google search on canberra skeptics argos "canberra skeptics" failed to generate a single hit.  The evening with Ron was a highly entertaining and informative brainstorming session on factors affecting the gender ratio of the newborn.  Those who missed it and are interested in the topic might like to borrow or buy Ron's books on the subject -- ’ The sexual odds: can you choose the sex of your baby? (ISBN: 9831365410. Birchgrove, NSW : Sally Milner Publishing, 1990) and Human Sex Determination: an Historical Review and Synthesis (ISBN: 0731693744 Riverlea Publishing 1990).  Both are out of print (I think) but Ron produced a second edition of the first named in 2002, which he tells me is available in electronic form from him (ronwells@pucg.org.au).  Secondhand copies are advertised on the Web -- ’ one site in India has it in its erotica section!

Our stall at the ANU Market Day (February 17th) operated again this year, for part of the day.  There was the usual interest in the free energy generator, and the regular complaint that Skeptics don't do enough about taking on the mainstream religions. Perhaps if we had as big a slush fund as they do we would do that more often.  Prof Ian Plimer's $300,000+ experience shows what can happen when you do (see http://www.skeptics.com.au/features/news/ip-trialintro.htm)


Those who missed Ockham's razor (Radio National: Sunday 8.45am, Mondays 2.15pm) on 22nd/23rd February missed skeptic Colin Keay. A transcript of his talk -- ’ Should we have more nuclear power stations?’ -- can be found on http://www.abc.net.au/rn/science/ockham/stories/s1048595.htm.  

Some 20 individuals made their way to the Tidbinbilla (Canberra Deep Space) Tracking Station on Saturday 6th March for an update from Glen Nagle on the space exploration programme. After an excellent value meal at the Moonrock Cafe, Glen gave us a run down on the latest reports from Mars, what the Saturn probe is hoping to find and various other projects are underway or planned.  He pointed out that the NASA tracking station at Tidbinbilla is the biggest export earner for the ACT.  He also told us the signals received here are transmitted to USA to be decoded and thus their good/badnews content has to be monitored by the Tidbinbilla Glee Meter.  Readers wishing to follow the Mars Rover on its exploration can do so at http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov/home/


News

Welcome to new member

A warm welcome to new member: Melinda Small.  Melinda is a statistician with the Australian Bureau of Statistics.


From the Committee

At its last meeting the Committee decided to start preparing for the environment weekend in August, including a forum, debate and bike ride.  The committee is seeking alternative venues for speakers.  If anyone has any good ideas, please advise the President.
 

Report on James Randi's The Amaz!ng Meeting 2 (Las Vegas, 15 to 18 January)

[Peter Barrett went and this is his unedited report]. 

As part of a two week trip to the USA, I took part in a major skeptical event organised by James Randi's Education Foundation, or JREF.  The event was known as The Amaz!ng Meeting 2 (TAM 2), and it was held in Las Vegas from Thursday 15 January to Sunday 18 January 2004.

James 'The Amazing' Randi is one of the leading figures in the Skeptical world. A highly successful magician, he's made it his life's work to unmask fakes and scam artists, assisted by the JREF. The JREF supports Randi's web-site (www.randi.org), and his various activities through the year. The web-site is well worth a visit, if only for his weekly commentary which covers all sorts of topics. It also includes a lively web forum whose members have developed a strong sense of community, as well as attracting a few people with alternate views.

It was the support of people such as these which led to the first Amaz!ng Meeting last year. TAM 1 was such a success that TAM 2 was widely supported.

Randi is a short, balding man, 75 years young, with a bushy, snow-white beard and a fierce visage (when he wants to employ it). He's loyal to his friends and fellow skeptics, and very charming in person. But he suffers no fools, and is hell on those who try to mislead him, others or themselves; he reserves particular scorn for those with Ph.D. after their names, as people believing themselves incapable of being mistaken.

TAM 2 attracted an audience of about 400 people. Most were from the USA, but there were others from Canada, Europe and Latin America, and five from Australia. About a quarter of the people attending were members of the JREF forum. The program featured over 20 speakers, two panel discussions, and a range of official and unofficial activities.

Thursday 15 January

I arrived in Las Vegas just after 1pm, with TAM 2 already under way. Randi and JREF's Andrew Harter were running a workshop, though the official opening wasn't until 5pm.

After the official opening by Randi, the first speaker was Jamy Ian Swiss, described in the program as a quick-of-hand. His talk mainly consisted of magic skills, but as we admired his tricks he took the time to briefly discuss the difference between magic and religion. The main comment he made after one trick was, "If you thought this was real, you wouldn't be an audience, you'd be a congregation."

The second and last speaker for the day was Ian Rowland, who was the guest of honour at the Australian Skeptics Conference in Canberra last August. He gave essentially the same performance that he did on that occasion, but no less impressive the second time around. In fact, seeing his skills a second time gave me a couple of clues as to what was happening. Still, the thing which occurred to me at the time was the sheer pleasure and wonder I got from watching these talents in use, and the challenge of trying to work out where and how I was being fooled.

The last activity of the day, which I wasn't able to participate in, was the Skepchicks Pyjama Party. Starting out as a bit of a laugh, it became something of a symbol of the success the JREF has had both in attracting women to skeptical ranks, and a celebration of the JREF's on-line community.

Friday 16 January

Dr Michael Shermer was the first speaker this morning, discussing his new book, "The Science of Good and Evil", about the origins of morality. Shermer's position is that morality evolved by natural selection. He listed two moral principles, reciprocity, and the Golden Rule (do unto others), which are almost universally embraced. He covered a range of topics in his talk: why we should be moral; the rise of religion; the existence of good and evil; and his concept of provisional morality as an alternative to either absolute or relative morality.

Dr Eugenie Scott of the National Center for Science Education spoke next, about the ongoing battle with creationists and "Intelligent Design" proponents in the USA, and the role of the NCSE in helping local groups combat efforts to emasculate the science curriculum. (Dr Scott gave talks in Australia a few years ago on the same topic.) She said the NCSE (www.ncseweb.org) provides advice for individuals and groups, and conducts research into creationist positions and articles.

The last speaker before lunch was Hervey Peoples, author of the book "The Human Question". Her talk largely covered the beliefs held by Americans about evolution, based on a large number of interviews. It may seem depressing that only 10% of Americans believe only evolution has shaped humanity's past, while 44% are creationists, with about 40% holding mixed or moderate views. But on the bright side, she emphasised that the "mixed/moderate" position embraced a large range of views, and that even the term "creationist" was a relatively broad term.

After lunch, Australia's own Ratbag, Peter Bowditch, described the problems caused by the alternate medicine industry in Australia, and in particular by the Complementary Healthcare Council of Australia. He also described his journey to TAM 2, which included detours to various quack clinics in southern California and northern Mexico, and his failure to meet the various people who have threatened him over the Internet.

Banachek the mentalist returned us to the world of magic, with some impressive tricks. He then described how he took part in a series of tests of mental powers undertaken by Peter Phillips in 1980-81. Phillips was a scientist, but something of a true believer in mental powers, and unaware that he was constantly being fooled by the young magician. He was all the more naive to ignore advice given by Randi on how he might be tricked. Worst of all, Phillips never realised the significance of the fact that each letter Randi wrote was specific to the test Phillips had just conducted, even though Randi wasn't part of Phillips's test team: Banachek contacted Randi after each test. He concluded his talk by warning of the false dichotomy - the belief that once you know one explanation for a phenomenon you know them all.

Then came one of the highlights of TAM 2: Penn and Teller. These two spectacular performers thrilled us with some of their tricks, most of them different from what they were to perform later. Throughout, the larger-than-life Penn kept up an aggressive patter, while Teller remained silent. The first trick was an old favourite - restoring to wholeness a length of cloth which appeared to have been cut in two. Other tricks included Teller eating pins, and Penn eating fire. Later on, they both spoke, with Teller describing magic as a celebration of the art of lying. Penn built on that, saying that lying is the one evil that can be celebrated when surrounded by the proscenium arch. What's wrong is when it leaks into the real world.

Following a short break, Randi, Penn, Teller, Shermer, Peoples, Scott, Dr Bob Park, Dr Steve Barrett and Dr Phil Plait gathered for a panel discussion of Bringing skepticism to the masses, moderated by the JREF's Hal Bidlack. Some comments:

The end of the panel marked the end of formal proceedings for the day. After dinner (some of us ate at an Outback Steakhouse) we caught a shuttle bus to the Rio casino, to catch the Penn and Teller show. The show is brilliant, and I can highly recommend it to anyone who happens to be in Las Vegas. I’m so pleased that they play to large audiences every night, year after year, because the show is much more than just magic: Penn's rapid-fire spiel also contained many references to critical thinking, science and atheism.

The show was something of a blur: Penn juggled flaming torches (and managed to yell, "Fire!" in a crowded theatre as he extinguished a deliberately dropped torch), then broken bottles, his description of the trick's difficulty operating at two levels; Teller conjured coins from water, then turned them into goldfish; Penn escaped from a noose; Teller's rabbit had an unfortunate meeting with a garden mulcher; Penn and a female assistant indulged in fire eating to piano accompaniment; Teller made silk hankies dance while he played the saxophone; Penn and Teller engaged in a knife throwing trick at the expense of a selected audience member; and Penn and Teller discussed politics as they appeared to burn an American flag.

They concluded their show with the famous two bullet trick: while staying on separate sides of the stage, they shot marked bullets at each other, apparently catching them in their teeth. Selected members of the audience, who'd marked the bullets and the cartridges confirmed that the cartridges had remained in the pistols, while the bullets had crossed the stage, clearly passing through glass panels.

Saturday 17 January

The first speaker today was Dr Bob Park, who discussed a US Supreme Court decision of 1993 that courts were to determine scientific expertise, rather than juries. Parks described seven warning signs of voodoo science, written as advice for judges. 1) The discovery is pitched to the media rather than other scientists. 2) A Powerful Establishment is said to be suppressing the discovery. 3) An effect is always at the limit of detection. 4) Evidence for a discovery is anecdotal. 5) A belief is said to be credible because it's endured for centuries. 6) An important discovery is made in isolation. 7) New laws of nature must be proposed to explain an observation.

On the way, Feisty Bob told a couple of stories, starting with the classic, "There's no claim so preposterous that a Ph.D. can't be found to vouch for it." He also mentioned the Center for Alternative Medicine, created by the US Congress. Thanks to a politically canny director, it now receives hundreds of millions of dollars in government funding, and it's been conducting randomised double blind trials of a number of alternate medicines. So far, all of the results coming in have proven negative.

The next speaker was Dr Steve Barrett of Quackwatch, who warned that consumers are vulnerable to the claims of alternate medicine quacks because they're not suspicious enough, and don't have the background to judge the accuracy of the information they're given. Some are antagonistic to science, distrustful of it, or even paranoid. There are also consumers who are terrified or desperate. Suppliers of these alternative medicines also fall into a number of categories. Some are moral believers. Others are amoral business people, in that they don't care whether their products are useful, as long as they sell them. Finally, there are the immoral crooks, who know they're selling rubbish.

The last speaker before lunch was the highly amusing Dr Phil Plait, the Bad Astronomer (Barry Williams reviewed his book "Bad Astronomy" in the Winter 2002 edition of "The Skeptic"). The BA covered two issues which caused something of a stir during 2003, the Harmonic Convergence and NASA's decision to crash the Galileo spacecraft into Jupiter.

The Harmonic Convergence was an event which actually occurred (well, sort of) last year. Six celestial objects happened to be placed at roughly 60 degree intervals around the Earth, an event of some importance in New Age circles. However, the BA found three major problems: 1) the six objects were at vastly different distances from the Earth; 2) they were scattered at varying angles above and below the Ecliptic, and 3) they varied vastly in size (in fact, one of them was the Sun, while another was a 200 km diameter comet remnant).

You may remember that Galileo was deliberately crashed into Jupiter last year to prevent it from inadvertently contaminating Jupiter's moons. However, there were some in the woo-woo community who believed that NASA’s real plan was to use Galileo's Radio-Thermal Generators (its power source) to ignite the hydrogen in Jupiter's atmosphere and turn it into a new star. The BA pointed out no less than six factors which each made this impossible.

You may also be interested to know that the Australian Skeptics have formally invited the BA to be the guest of honour at this November's conference in Sydney, and he's keen to attend.

The first speaker after lunch was the delightful Julia Sweeney, late of the comedy TV show, "Saturday Night Live". Sweeney's talk was a pared-down version of her new monologue, "Letting Go of God", a tale both hilarious and melancholy of her journey from Catholicism to atheism, and the stopping off points between. She emphasised the importance of accepting what is true, whether you like it or not, and she described how removing God from your world view changes your outlook on events: things become your responsibility - you can't leave it to God.

The next "talk" turned out to be a two man act. Dean Cameron, a Hollywood actor, and his friend Victor Isaac, performed "Dino and Victor's Nigerian Spam Scam Scam". Dino and Victor read a month's worth of emails exchanged between Cameron and various Nigerians who have been attempting to scam money from him. Cameron played himself, while Isaac played the parts of the Nigerians. They had the audience in stitches as Cameron made hilarious cultural references which they completely missed, deliberately misunderstood some statements they made, introduced obscure codes and irrelevant side issues, and flirted outrageously with one of the Nigerians.

The last speaker of the day was Lance Burton, a magician, who, like Penn and Teller, has his own permanent show in Las Vegas. Burton's act was short. He started with a demonstration of faux magic, turning it into real magic. He then demonstrated the skill of escaping from a straightjacket, a homage to Harry Houdini.

Following the afternoon break was the second panel discussion, featuring Randi, Sweeney, Penn, Swiss, Rowland, Dino, and Harter. Again moderated by Hal Bidlack, the topic was Skepticism and the Entertainment Industry. Not surprisingly, many questions were directed at Julia Sweeney.

 a. What do you tell kids about atheism and death? Explain it to them straight.

 b. Should there be a movie to exalt science and critical thinking? No, it doesn't work that way. Instead, celebrate the great movies, like "Apollo 13" and "South Park".

  c. What can we do to help deal with the flakes and frauds on talk shows? Don't watch it. Watch the good stuff and write to the stations to thank them when they screen it.

  d. What did the panellists think of the term "Bright"? Penn and Randi both like it.

  e. Rowland described some unhappiness within the magical industry about his book on cold reading, believing he was revealing trade secrets.

  f. What harm do people like John Edward do? They're lying, cheating scum. You might have liked it at the time, but what of integrity? Nor is he a grief counsellor, as his method is to make people hold on to the pain of bereavement, rather than to move on. The term "epistemological hedonism" was used: if it feels good, do it. Doesn't this apply to John Edward? Penn's response was, "It also applies to heroin."

  g. What of Penn and Teller's TV series "Bullshit"? It'll be out on DVD in March. (The show was reviewed by Richard Saunders in the Autumn 2003 edition of "The Skeptic".)

  h. Will they be covering Scientology? Penn said that even he and Teller weren't powerful enough to take on the scientologists, though he suspected they were a lot less influential than people gave them credit for.
 

Another of the informal activities followed - the international chocolate challenge. I flew the Australian flag by bringing along some Tim Tams, considering their name appropriate for TAM 2!

Sunday 18 January

The day started with the presentation of papers, introduced by JREF's Dr Jeff Corey. The papers were brief talks prepared by JREF forum members on topics of personal interest.

Lt Col Matt Morgan presented a talk on the misuse of the Second Law of Thermodynamics by creationists to "prove" that evolution is impossible. They claim that increased order contradicts the 2LOT, but ignore the fact that the law applies only to closed systems. Thanks to the Sun, the Earth is anything but a closed system.

Dr Ray Hall discussed how science works. He started with Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit, Occam's Razor, Verification and Falsification. The proponent of a claim must be able to answer the question: "What evidence could I show you that could change your mind?"  Finally, Dr Hall compared a case law description of science (that which is testable, falsifiable, provisional, guided by natural law, and which is explained by reference to these laws) with the membership statements of creationist groups (which are articles of faith).

The last paper was presented by Dr Dave Ewalt, about skeptics and the media. When writing letters to the Editor, there are things to keep in mind to improve the chances of being published: be polite; be constructive (provide links to useful sites); suggest good sources of information; keep it short; get others to write letters as well (but don't use a boilerplate); write to the editor and the reporter (so the boss knows they've been caught out); and don't always be negative (let the media know when they get it right).

The last speaker of the conference was Dr Ray Beiersdorfer, a geologist and expert on lunar rocks, who spoke about that staple of New Age nonsense, the crystal. He defined crystals as substances in which the atoms are arranged in a regular, repeating, orderly pattern, naturally occurring, inorganic, solid, and with characteristic physical properties. Drawing from his research on the Internet, Dr Beiersdorfer catalogued the healing claims for crystals, the basis for the claims and people's beliefs. He then described some of the unsuccessful tests of the claims of crystal powers he had conducted.

The last part of TAM 2 was a couple of short films. The first was of the first card trick performed in space. Randi (on Earth) and NASA astronaut Ed Lu (on the International Space Station) jointly performed the trick, with the assistance of NASA and local media. Lu, a cheerful man with a impish grin, played with a deck of cards as it floated in front of him, listening to Randi's instructions, and clearly relished the event.

The second film was a series of short clips of James van Praagh, one of those people who's made his name from "talking to the dead". The film showed how he constantly recycles his terms from show to show. Each segment was preceded by words: breathing; toys; jewellery; these seemed to be the only things the dead mentioned to van Praagh, and the victims did their best to fit their circumstances to his statements, while he quickly revised his comments to fit their replies.

After a short break, those of us remaining gathered for the formal closing of TAM 2. Randi again spoke. He reminded us that discussion and evidence are different things, and reiterated that, "If you make the claim, supply the evidence."

Sunday afternoon

One of the semi-official events accompanying TAM 2 was a tour of Red Rock Canyon, organised by Dr Beiersdorfer. Seven vehicles, filled with about 25 people, headed out to the scrubby desert west of Las Vegas, below the Spring Mountains.

As we approached the mountains, the banding of various sandstone strata becomes colourfully obvious. We briefly stopped at the Visitors Center, where we got a view of the spectacular Calico Hills, a large outcrop of sandstone, coloured pink, red and cream. The next stop was adjacent to the Calico Hills, giving us the chance to examine the cross-bedded fossilised sand dunes from the Triassic Period. After a brief stop at the highest point in the area (from which we could see Las Vegas) we headed into Willow Spring Canyon, where we found Native American rock paintings and rock carvings dating back several centuries.

So what did I learn?

TAM 2 was a wonderful experience, and so much more than just listening to the speakers. A large part of the experience was interacting with the people from around the world who shared the skeptical worldview, people who enjoyed each other's company, people with a wide range of careers and talents, thoughtful people who were always willing to learn something new.

Randi gives no signs of slowing down, and his status within the magic and skeptical communities was vital in allowing him to assemble such a wonderful list of speakers. His staff showed the importance of people working behind the scenes and out in front to make things work. The conference was quite expensive, with registration costing about US$300, and accommodation a fair bit more on top of that. We do a good job to keep our own registration fees well below that.

However, the speakers were all of a high standard, from the fields of science, magic and the entertainment industry. I think we could do well to include some speakers from the third category at future Skeptic conferences, and the issue has been informally discussed.

TAM 2 was strongly atheist, and a number of panel questions related to this. Both Randi and Penn are aggressively atheist, and a number of their comments left some people uncomfortable. But there were others there I spoke to who greatly appreciated Randi and Penn vocalising their own thoughts.

The conference generally ran smoothly, although there were a few hiccups caused by the venue, and a few speakers ran over time. The two panel discussions were a great success, allowing attendees to pitch questions directly to the speakers (there had been no time for questions of individual speakers). But in general, the conference was organised on similar lines to Skeptic conferences here in Australia.

A few other people who attended TAM 2 have written up their comments (and attached photos). If you'd like to read them, visit www.randi.org, go to the JREF forum and select the topic "The Amaz!ng Meet!ng and other Skeptical Events".

In summary, it was so good I'd love to be able to go to future TAMs.

Peter Barrett

Feb 2004

 

Ramblings from the President

A member suggested we have a talk on "Nanobes".  As a microbiologist I am of the view there would be nano value in this -- as will be revealed in my Ramblings in the next Argos.

Pete Griffith

March 2004